SBI Research has projected that India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue for FY26 will exceed the government’s budget estimates, even after factoring in gains and losses from tax rate rationalisation across states. The forecast is based on growth assumptions outlined by the GST Council.
According to the report, most states are expected to benefit from the revised GST framework introduced in September 2025, which simplified the structure into a two-tier system of 5% and 18%, along with a 0% exempt category and a new 40% rate for luxury and sin goods. Maharashtra and Karnataka are projected to gain 6% and 10.7%, respectively, indicating that states overall will remain net gainers.
The research cited previous rate changes in 2018 and 2019, noting that rationalisation typically leads to stronger revenue growth after a brief adjustment phase. While short-term collections may dip 3–4% month-on-month, revenues generally rebound with 5–6% sustained monthly growth.
In October 2025, gross GST collections rose 4.6% year-on-year to ₹1.95 lakh crore, while cumulative April–October FY26 revenues grew 9% to ₹13.89 lakh crore.
